Please select your home edition
Edition
J Composites 2022 - J99 LEADERBOARD

New global forecasts of marine heatwaves foretell ecological and economic impacts

by NOAA Fisheries 24 Apr 23:03 UTC
The latest global marine heatwave forecast showing the predicted probability of marine heatwaves for September 2022. Forecasts are experimental guidance, providing insight from the latest climate models. © NOAA Fisheries

Researchers have developed global forecasts that can provide up to a year's advance notice of marine heatwaves, sudden and pronounced increases in ocean temperatures that can dramatically affect ocean ecosystems.

The forecasts described in the journal Nature could help fishing fleets, ocean managers, and coastal communities anticipate the effects of marine heatwaves. One such heatwave, known as "the Blob," emerged about 2013 in the northeast Pacific Ocean and persisted through 2016. It led to shifting fish stocks, harmful algal blooms, entanglements of endangered humpback whales, and thousands of starving sea lion pups washing up on beaches.

"We have seen marine heatwaves cause sudden and pronounced changes in ocean ecosystems around the world, and forecasts can help us anticipate what may be coming," said lead author Michael Jacox, a research scientist at NOAA Fisheries' Southwest Fisheries Science Center in Monterey, California, and NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.

Marine heatwave forecasts will be available online through NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory. The researchers called the forecasts a "key advance toward improved climate adaptation and resilience for marine-dependent communities around the globe."

The forecasts leverage global climate models to predict the likely emergence of new marine heatwaves. "This is a really exciting way to use existing modeling tools in a much-needed new application," Jacox said.

Reducing ecological and economic impacts

Impacts of marine heatwaves have been documented in ecosystems around the world, particularly in the past decade. These include:

  • Fish and shellfish declines that caused global fishery losses of hundreds of millions of dollars
  • Shifting distributions of marine species that increased human-wildlife conflict and disputes about fishing rights
  • Extremely warm waters that have caused bleaching and mass mortalities of corals

On the U.S. West Coast, marine heatwaves gained notoriety following the Blob, which rattled the California Current Ecosystem starting in 2014. That marine heatwave led to an ecological cascade in which whales' prey was concentrated unusually close to shore, and a severe bloom of toxic algae along the coast delayed opening of the valuable Dungeness crab fishery. Humpback whales moved closer to shore to feed in some of the same waters targeted by the crab fishery. As fishermen tried to make up for lost time after the delay by deploying additional crab traps, whales became entangled in record numbers in the lines attached to crab traps. Recent research has also connected marine heatwaves along the West Coast to a northward shift in California market squid, which have long supported one of California's largest commercial fisheries.

NOAA Fisheries scientists have since developed a Marine Heatwave Tracker that monitors the North Pacific Ocean for signs of marine heatwaves. The forecasts go a step further to anticipate where marine heatwaves are likely to emerge in coming months, and how long they are expected to persist.

"Extreme events in concert with increasing global temperatures can serve as a catalyst for ecosystem change and reorganization," said Elliott Hazen, a research ecologist at the Southwest Fisheries Science Center and coauthor of the research. "While marine heatwaves can have some unanticipated effects, knowing what's coming allows for a more precautionary approach to lessen the impact on both fisheries and protected species. Understanding the ocean is the first step towards forecasting ecological changes and incorporating that foresight into decision-making."

El Niño-Southern Oscillation boosts forecast accuracy

The forecasts are most accurate during periods influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a well-known climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean. In fact, El Niño (the warm phase of the oscillation) could be considered the "world's most prominent marine heatwave," Jacox said. It demonstrates that the heatwaves themselves are not new.

The forecasts cannot predict marine heatwaves as far in advance in regions such as the Mediterranean Sea, or off the U.S. East Coast. The atmosphere and ocean fluctuate more rapidly in these areas. The forecasts provide the greatest foresight in areas with known ocean-climate patterns such as the Indo-Pacific region north of Australia, the California Current System, and the northern Brazil Current.

The scientists noted that managers of fisheries and other marine life must weigh their reaction to predicted marine heatwaves based on the potential consequences. For example, they would need to weigh the economic costs of limiting fisheries ahead of a marine heatwave against the risk of inadvertently entangling endangered whales or sea turtles.

"We're talking about the difference between making informed choices and reacting to changes as they impact ecosystems," Hazen said. "That is always going to be a balance, but now it is a much more informed one.

The research is a collaboration between scientists at:

  • NOAA Fisheries' Southwest Fisheries Science Center
  • NOAA Research's Physical Sciences Laboratory
  • University of Miami
  • University of California - Santa Cruz

The work was supported by funding from the NOAA Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections program and the NOAA Fisheries' Office of Science and Technology.

Related Articles

Report from the Pacific Seas
Seafloor mapping and coral reef assessment in the Mariana Archipelago In this mission, scientists with different backgrounds share the goals of measuring water depths, mapping the seafloor, and gathering information on coral reef habitats. Posted on 22 May
Vaquitas are not impacted by inbreeding depression
Study finds vaquitas have high probability to recover if deaths in gillnets are immediately halted Unchecked gillnetting has pushed the world's smallest porpoise to the brink of extinction: there are roughly 10 vaquitas remaining in the Gulf of California in Mexico. Posted on 16 May
Hawaiian monk seal population surpasses 1,500
Estimates show that this endangered species' numbers have continued to rise The Hawaiian monk seal is one of the world's most endangered seal species. For almost 40 years, NOAA has monitored the seal's population trend, researched threats, and taken many actions to save seals. Posted on 14 May
New study about where giant manta rays go and why
Knowing where mantas are helps managers protect them from threats When you see a big, dark shadow with wings glide by you in the water, your first reaction might be one of fear due to the enormous size. But then you realize the world's largest ray is harmless and just looking for its next meal: tiny zooplankton. Posted on 2 May
NOAA scientists discuss new report on climate
Podcaster John Sheehan talks with Dr. Kirstin Holsman and Dr. Libby Jewett Climate change is getting worse, it's happening everywhere, and it requires immediate action. These are just a few of the takeaways of a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Posted on 1 May
Using hungry fish to conserve coral reefs
Identifying best algae-grazing fish can help fight against algae overgrowth & promote reef recovery For her Ph.D. research on invasive lionfish, Tye Kindinger spent most days underwater, scuba diving at reefs in the Bahamas. She became familiar with individual fish that she would see while monitoring the reef. Posted on 24 Apr
Visualizing climate change with Melissa Karp
New interactive fisheries data portal shows how specific marine species' locations shifted over time Global warming impacts nearly every aspect of NOAA Fisheries' conservation and management mission, including where marine species live in the ocean. Posted on 22 Apr
Social behaviors of Hawaiian hawksbill sea turtles
Three recent studies shed new light on endangered hawksbill sea turtles in Hawaii If you've ever gone swimming in Hawaiian waters, you've probably seen plenty of green sea turtles, or "Honu," their Hawaiian name. Posted on 3 Apr
Pinniped Entanglement Group's worldwide initiative
Highlighting a dedicated team of scientists and volunteers working to “lose the loop” Pinnipeds—seals, sea lions, and walruses—are inquisitive animals. This makes them vulnerable to becoming entangled around their necks when they investigate loop-shaped marine debris such as packing bands and abandoned fishing nets. Posted on 2 Apr
Climate change: impacts, adaptation, vulnerability
NOAA authors describe a recent report on climate change and how it is already affecting the world Some 270 top scientists from 67 countries, including two NOAA scientists, have published a large-scale report on climate change. Posted on 13 Mar
J Composites 2022 - J99 FOOTERPantaenius 2022 - SAIL & POWER 1 FOOTER ROWCrewsaver 2021 Safetyline FOOTER