Please select your home edition
Edition
Hyde Sails 2024 - One Design

New global forecasts of marine heatwaves foretell ecological and economic impacts

by NOAA Fisheries 24 Apr 2022 23:03 UTC
The latest global marine heatwave forecast showing the predicted probability of marine heatwaves for September 2022. Forecasts are experimental guidance, providing insight from the latest climate models © NOAA Fisheries

Researchers have developed global forecasts that can provide up to a year's advance notice of marine heatwaves, sudden and pronounced increases in ocean temperatures that can dramatically affect ocean ecosystems.

The forecasts described in the journal Nature could help fishing fleets, ocean managers, and coastal communities anticipate the effects of marine heatwaves. One such heatwave, known as "the Blob," emerged about 2013 in the northeast Pacific Ocean and persisted through 2016. It led to shifting fish stocks, harmful algal blooms, entanglements of endangered humpback whales, and thousands of starving sea lion pups washing up on beaches.

"We have seen marine heatwaves cause sudden and pronounced changes in ocean ecosystems around the world, and forecasts can help us anticipate what may be coming," said lead author Michael Jacox, a research scientist at NOAA Fisheries' Southwest Fisheries Science Center in Monterey, California, and NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.

Marine heatwave forecasts will be available online through NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory. The researchers called the forecasts a "key advance toward improved climate adaptation and resilience for marine-dependent communities around the globe."

The forecasts leverage global climate models to predict the likely emergence of new marine heatwaves. "This is a really exciting way to use existing modeling tools in a much-needed new application," Jacox said.

Reducing ecological and economic impacts

Impacts of marine heatwaves have been documented in ecosystems around the world, particularly in the past decade. These include:

  • Fish and shellfish declines that caused global fishery losses of hundreds of millions of dollars
  • Shifting distributions of marine species that increased human-wildlife conflict and disputes about fishing rights
  • Extremely warm waters that have caused bleaching and mass mortalities of corals

On the U.S. West Coast, marine heatwaves gained notoriety following the Blob, which rattled the California Current Ecosystem starting in 2014. That marine heatwave led to an ecological cascade in which whales' prey was concentrated unusually close to shore, and a severe bloom of toxic algae along the coast delayed opening of the valuable Dungeness crab fishery. Humpback whales moved closer to shore to feed in some of the same waters targeted by the crab fishery. As fishermen tried to make up for lost time after the delay by deploying additional crab traps, whales became entangled in record numbers in the lines attached to crab traps. Recent research has also connected marine heatwaves along the West Coast to a northward shift in California market squid, which have long supported one of California's largest commercial fisheries.

NOAA Fisheries scientists have since developed a Marine Heatwave Tracker that monitors the North Pacific Ocean for signs of marine heatwaves. The forecasts go a step further to anticipate where marine heatwaves are likely to emerge in coming months, and how long they are expected to persist.

"Extreme events in concert with increasing global temperatures can serve as a catalyst for ecosystem change and reorganization," said Elliott Hazen, a research ecologist at the Southwest Fisheries Science Center and coauthor of the research. "While marine heatwaves can have some unanticipated effects, knowing what's coming allows for a more precautionary approach to lessen the impact on both fisheries and protected species. Understanding the ocean is the first step towards forecasting ecological changes and incorporating that foresight into decision-making."

El Niño-Southern Oscillation boosts forecast accuracy

The forecasts are most accurate during periods influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a well-known climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean. In fact, El Niño (the warm phase of the oscillation) could be considered the "world's most prominent marine heatwave," Jacox said. It demonstrates that the heatwaves themselves are not new.

The forecasts cannot predict marine heatwaves as far in advance in regions such as the Mediterranean Sea, or off the U.S. East Coast. The atmosphere and ocean fluctuate more rapidly in these areas. The forecasts provide the greatest foresight in areas with known ocean-climate patterns such as the Indo-Pacific region north of Australia, the California Current System, and the northern Brazil Current.

The scientists noted that managers of fisheries and other marine life must weigh their reaction to predicted marine heatwaves based on the potential consequences. For example, they would need to weigh the economic costs of limiting fisheries ahead of a marine heatwave against the risk of inadvertently entangling endangered whales or sea turtles.

"We're talking about the difference between making informed choices and reacting to changes as they impact ecosystems," Hazen said. "That is always going to be a balance, but now it is a much more informed one.

The research is a collaboration between scientists at:

  • NOAA Fisheries' Southwest Fisheries Science Center
  • NOAA Research's Physical Sciences Laboratory
  • University of Miami
  • University of California - Santa Cruz

The work was supported by funding from the NOAA Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections program and the NOAA Fisheries' Office of Science and Technology.

Related Articles

Gray whales on the rebound
Signs of hope despite challenges California's gray whales are an iconic, beloved species. Our scientists have been concerned about the Eastern North Pacific gray whale after a recent increase in strandings and deaths. Posted on 21 Feb
Top must-read Pacific Islands stories of 2024
Take a look at some of the most important and inspiring stories We've shared many great stories throughout 2024. Among these stories are our staff favorite reads of 2024. Posted on 8 Feb
Hawai‘i Coral Reef assessments complete for 2024
3-month mission assessing coral reef health and ocean conditions Kanaka ?Oiwi knowledge systems, values, and practices inform a 3-month mission assessing coral reef health and ocean conditions in Hawai'i as part of the National Coral Reef Monitoring Program. Posted on 10 Dec 2024
Ocean gliders listen for whales off Oregon
Passive acoustic monitoring by “gliders” may better detect some species Three small autonomous underwater gliders called Seagliders crisscrossed the ocean off the Oregon Coast in recent months. Posted on 8 Dec 2024
Monitoring endangered North Atlantic right whales
NOAA Fisheries uses the latest technologies such as passive acoustic monitoring The annual North Atlantic right whale calving season, which begins in mid-November and runs through mid-April, is almost here once again. Posted on 15 Nov 2024
Gray Whale Calf count remains low in 2024
As population slowly emerges from multi-year decline The number of gray whale calves migrating with their mothers along the California Coast this year was one of the lowest on record. Posted on 2 Nov 2024
Tagging Humpbacks
Where Biology, Conservation, and Engineering meet "Alright, this is gonna be the one!" The 22-foot inflatable research vessel Balena speeds up and approaches a group of four humpback whales along the edge of Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary offshore Provincetown, Massachusetts. Posted on 29 Sep 2024
From past patients to new moms
Two Hawaiian monk seals who were previously rescued are now new mothers! Two Hawaiian monk seals who were previously rescued and rehabilitated are now new mothers! Posted on 27 Sep 2024
Stranding network helps young killer whale
Stranded on Carmel River State Beach on the Central California Coast Tuesday Stranding responders tried to save a young killer whale stranded on Carmel River State Beach on the Central California Coast Tuesday. Unfortunately the animal died in transit to a rehabilitation facility in Santa Cruz. Posted on 20 Sep 2024
Under pressure to restore deep-sea corals
A saturation diving mission deep in the Gulf of Mexico NOAA Fisheries and partners conducted a saturation diving mission deep in the Gulf of Mexico to advance our coral restoration efforts. Throughout the mission, the pressure was on in more ways than one—literally and competitively. Posted on 17 Sep 2024
Hyde Sails 2024 - One DesignGJW Direct 2024 DinghyMarine Products Direct 2023 - Calypso FOOTER