Cup Spy - Day 9: Dramatic final day and surprise outcome to Round Robin series
by Richard Gladwell Sail-World NZ 9 Sep 2024 15:57 UTC
9 September 2024
A cyclor's anguish - Orient Express Racing Team - Day 9 - Round Robin 2 - Louis Vuitton Cup - September 9, 2024 © Ricardo Pinto / America's Cup
Barcelona turned on more surprises for the final racing in the Round Robin series of the Louis Vuitton Cup.
First, the wind made an appearance and racing got underway on time. And at the end of the day INEOS Britannia emerged as the top Challenger.
There was maybe no surprise that the newest team in the regatta, were the first to exit. However they too, came close to scoring an upset, as the breeze softened in their Match against INEOS Britannia, and on more than one occasion, the Brits came close to making a sticky landing, as they sailed across the course at just above minimum foiling speed.
As it turned out even an upset win against INEOS Britannia wouldn't have saved the French.
In the second Match Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli developed a technology fault, preventing the Italians from lowering their starboard foil arm and wing foil. They were locked on starboard tack and quickly sailed 100metres beyond the port boundary and were disqualified - handing Alinghi Red Bull Racing an unexpected bonus win, lifting them two points clear of the French.
The standard of the racing stepped up another notch today, as it has done whenever there are reasonable conditions for racing.
The British were clearly thinking several steps ahead, as the Kiwis have been doing for most of the series. A leg by leg analysis shows most of the gains seem to be made in one bite - best evidenced by the margin that is measured in metres, rather than the timed mark rounding differential.
However the serious analysis will have to wait for a day or so, until the teams and others get the opportunity to work through the data off the boats, and in particular drill down on the wind information that is recorded on all boats and made publicly available.
The key will be to determine whether any of the now five teams has made a speed gain, and if so, where and how.
Most will have the gut feeling that INEOS Britannia have been the big movers in the regatta, and their sail-off against the top challenger, Luna Rossa was a surprise, but maybe not - the outcome was the same last time they raced, two days ago, by a margin of 25secs.
While the Italians were outstanding in the early stages of this regatta, they have lost three races now - same as the British, and both have won seven, the difference is that INEOS Britannia have scored most of their wins at the end of the regatta, while Luna Rossa was dominant at the beginning.
Most of the racing was conducted in light winds, and while the Brits looked better today, they still had a couple of dicey moments, and one of their work-ons will be improving the reliability of their foiling performance at the bottom end of the range.
Most teams suffer from this issue, and all seem to be at different places on the same trajectory, where the team designers have come up with the fastest foil they can, and it is up to the sailing teams - who are top professionals - to be able to work out how to sail with a foil that is fast but not forgiving. That's why they are paid the big bucks. if they want to win they have to be able to work outside their comfort zone.
The unknown in this regatta is which teams are in their final configuration. The rules stipulate that a team must declare their yacht configuration 120 hours before an event stage. They must stay within the component rules (numbers of wingfoils etc), but there was no requirement in this regatta for them to sail with the top racing gear, and show their hand to their rival Challengers and Defender. It is unlikely that all started off the same place on the technology grid.
The other catch - with the Round Robin being so long due to the weather issues, is that to comply with the 120-hour declaration deadline, all teams had to make their declarations of configuration for the Semis about the scheduled start time of today's racing in the Round Robin.
Maybe it is no big deal for the teams. But it does seem weird that in a knockout competition, you have to declare your setup for the next before a preliminary phase has concluded.
So the AC75s could have a new wing foil configuration, and we'll probably new sails for the Semi-Finals.
Another key area for the performance analysts and pre-Semi Finals testing will be look at jibs, the cross overs, and see what the other teams have been doing/reacting. It is reasonably clear that it is best to use the smallest jib possible for the expected windstrength - but that has a downside if the breeze softens.
The situation is not like a normal yacht race. These races are only 18-20 minutes duration, and the AC75s are self generating most of their wind pressure. Another area to be visited will be the forecasting accuracy and how it played out in hindsight. Barcelona has some big variations over quite a small sailing area.
While Alinghi Red Bull Racing finished with three wins, one of those came from Luna Rossa's default in today's race. The Swiss have a big improvement to make in the five days remaining before the semi-finals.
American Magic also look to have some work ahead of them to survive beyond the Semi-Finals. Before the start of the Round Robin, most would have picked them to be a certain Finalist, along with Luna Rossa. However now they just do not look to be the threat they were previously. Again they are another focus for the performance data analysts of all teams, as a learning exercise about themselves and the venue.
The loss of skipper and co-helmsman Paul Goodison after his fall on Saturday, could not have come at a worse time - when American Magic have to regroup, and play to their strengths. The team did issue a statement during today's racing on Goodison's replacement.
Headlined "Helmsman Role Transition" a careful read of the last paragraph indicates that the team don't expect him back on the boat for the Semi-Finals and maybe this America's Cup.
"After securing a place in the Louis Vuitton Challenger Selection Series Semi-Finals, American Magic confirms that helmsman Paul Goodison sustained an injury and is currently undergoing treatment. Paul’s recovery is being monitored daily, and we look forward to his swift return to the port helm of Patriot.
"In the interim, Olympic medalist and multiple World Champion Lucas Calabrese will helm Patriot. Lucas has been an integral part of our helmsman rotation for over two years, training extensively alongside the crew, and is fully prepared to take on this role as we continue our campaign.
"As a team, American Magic supports Paul in his recovery, and we are confident in the Patriot sailing team, which now includes Lucas on the port helm, to lead Patriot through the upcoming races as we focus on the America’s Cup."
An imperative for the US team will be to quickly integrate Lucas Calabrese into the racing team, as well as that of Tom Slingsby who presumably takes over as racing skipper. The Semi-Finals are only a nine race series, and none of the teams have the luxury of using the first couple of races as a learning experience.
It is clear from listening to the other teams that on-board communication has been a big work-on for all teams, and has yielded some good results when it has worked.
A key has been how the crew regroup during a race when all is not going to plan, and how the leadership cuts in and works.
Emirates Team New Zealand have always been strong in this area, and particularly so with Nathan Outteridge coming in as a co-helm. But in this series even the Kiwi machine has slipped out of gear on occasions, and needed some blunt conversation to recover and save a race. The Brits have made big improvements. And the steady, calm voice of Jimmy Spithill is a big asset in the moments of short-lived crisis on Luna Rossa.
Communication and accurate boat positioning - working several tacks ahead - will probably determine the outcome of the Semi-Finals rather than finding that extra lick of boatspeed that masks tactical shortcomings.
Final Results - Louis Vuitton Cup Round Robin series
Race Summaries:
Match 31: INEOS Britannia (Port) vs Luna Rossa Prada Pirelli (S'bd)
Start: ITA leads in both running down start line with GBr to windward. GBR work out to windward and right hand side. Lead by 140metres.Good communication on GBR, who come across to apply a loose cover as they approach Mark 1.
Mark 1: 03m 18secs GBR leads ITA by 18secs. Margin out to 300 metres downwind.
Mark 2: 06m 26secs GBR leads ITA by 29secs. Margin out to 345metres. Breeze up to 9kts.
Mark 3: 10m 53secs GBR leads ITA by 33secs. Margin out to 600metres on Leg 4.
Mark 4: 14m 20secs GBR leads ITA by 49secs. Margin around 480 metres on Leg 5.
Mark 5: 18m 54secs GBR leads ITA by 37secs. Margin 465 metres on Leg 6.
Mark 6: 22m 12secs GBR leads ITA by 42secs, and tops the points table going into the Semi-Final. The Brits have the choice of opponent for the Semi Finals. The pairings will be announced at the Media Conference on Friday - the day before the start of the Semi-Finals.
Match 30: NZL (Port) vs USA (S'bd)
Start: USA off foils in pre-start and sails outside 100m boundary and is penalised. NZL leads of start - only 100 metres behind NZL. Teams go boundary sailing and take opposite sides. USA comes back on a good shift and takes a big bite out of NZLs lead - down to 50metres
Mark 1: 03m 58secs NZL leads USA by 07secs. Ease away to 200metre lead downwind. Wind strength 7.4kts
Mark 2: 07m 41secs NZL leads USA by 31secs. NZL lead upwind by 250metres. Both boats bang the opposite boundary and then NZL comes back to maintain a loose cover.
Mark 3: 11m 44secs NZL leads USA by 22secs. NZL lead downwind by 260metres. NZL ease out to 350metres margin downwind. USA very slow coming into Mark 4 - gets approach to wrong and comes in at 19-20kts lucky to be able to stay foiling in rounding.
Mark 4: 15m 03secs NZL leads USA by 81secs. USA comes off foils mid-leg down to 12kts. NZL extends.
Mark 5: 19m 14secs NZL leads USA by 142secs. Breeze at 7.1kts
Finish 22m 25secs NZL leads USA by 157secs. Margin at finish 1500metres.
Match 29: Luna Rossa (Port) vs Alinghi Red Bull Racing (S'bd);
Italy suffers an electro/mechanical/software issue with starboard foil arm - jammed in the raised position. They pull out of the start and sail outside the 100 metre boundary. Until the issue is fixed they are unable to sail - can only sail on starboard tack. The DSQ forces them into a sail-off against the British for top slot in the Round Robin, and to have the choice of opponent in the Semi-Final. The Italian DSQ gives SUI a default win, and lifts them a win above the French making the last race redundant.
Match 28: Orient Express Racing FRA (Port) vs INEOS Britannia (GBR) (S'bd); Start 14:10hrs CET
Start: France was a little early but had room left at the leeward end. An even start with the French having a small lead, however INEOS powered through to windward and ran up a 128metre lead, and showing a better VMG by 2kts on the French.
Mark 1: 03m 34secs GBR led FRA by 25secs
Mark 2: 06m 49secs GBR led FRA by 47secs huge gain by Brits - 500metres on the water.
Mark 3: 11m 34secs GBR led FRA by 84secs but only 500metres on the water. Both struggling to make effective VMG downwind. Tacks and gybes being executed at minimum foiling speed.
Mark 4: 15m 58sec GBR led FRA by 64secs distance down to 350metres. French muffed tack and landed, losing 200 metres
Mark 5: 20m 24sec GBR led FRA by 55secs. French putting the Brits under pressure to execute their tacks/gybes perfectly. Lead now out to 700metres.
Finish: 23m 00sec GBR led FRA by 71secs. French now eliminated from AC37.
Weather Prognosis:
America's Cup Weather Partner PredictWind has provided a dedicated Race Weather Center offering fans access to detailed daily weather breakdowns, live webcams and historical weather data to daily weather breakdowns written by meteorologists.
Forecast Race Day 9:
Monday 9th Sept
Predictwind's America's Cup weather forecaster Arnaud Monges expects that the instability will be gone and the weather will be back to normal.
The winds will be offshore in the morning from the North-West driven by a large-scale pressure gradient. Around mid-day, the wind will die out and a southerly breeze will fight to establish. Wind speeds are excepted light and shifty around 4 to 8 knots with waves of half a meter with 4 second period from the South-East. Those could make tricky conditions to stay up on foil. It will be sunny all day with temperatures up to 27°C on land and 24° on the water.
Course Location:
Monday's Live race coverage:
Race Program and Crew Lists
Schedule:
Match 28: FRA (Port) vs GBR (S'bd); Start 14:10hrs CET
Match 29: ITA (Port) vs SUI (S'bd); Start to be advised
Match 30: NZL (Port) vs USA (S'bd); Start to be advised
Match 31 (Sail off if required); Start time and entry sides to be announced
Crew Lists
Louis Vuitton Cup Points and Leaderboard after Day 7 (no racing on Day 8)
Series format
There are two phases of Round Robin racing, four races are scheduled to be sailed, with six teams competing and two of those will be sailing twice. The day's pairings can reread from the graphic below.
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